After 14 years of favorable movement, a significant ratio has shifted against bitcoin, signaling potential challenges for bulls.
By Omkar Godbole Aug 5, 2026, 7:54 a.m. 2 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on The S&P 500-to-bitcoin ratio has surpassed its 200-week average for the first time. (TradingView)- The S&P 500 and Nasdaq, when priced in bitcoin, have recently risen above their 200-week moving averages for the first time since 2012, a threshold that previously limited every stock rally against BTC.
- This shift indicates that the era of rapid BTC price increases may be coming to an end.
Historically, bitcoin BTC$64,196.50 has consistently outperformed stocks and other assets, leading its advocates to claim it as a prime store of value. However, a new chart suggests that this advantage could be waning.
The pivotal chart in question is the S&P 500-to-bitcoin ratio, which illustrates the amount of bitcoin needed to purchase the index. Currently, about 0.12 BTC is required, compared to over 300 BTC in 2012. This ratio has been on a steady decline since bitcoin's launch in 2010, with the 200-week simple moving average acting as a resistance level. Although there were brief periods where stocks outperformed bitcoin, they never exceeded this average.
That has changed recently.
In the past few weeks, this ratio has not only exceeded the 200-week average but has also established a stable position above it, as evident on the right side of the chart. This trend is also reflected in the Nasdaq/BTC ratio, which has similarly crossed above its 200-week average for the first time.
This development could be troubling for bitcoin proponents. The sustained break above this critical average suggests that the period of bitcoin significantly outpacing equities may be over. If this trend continues, the narrative that bitcoin is a "superior store of value" could begin to diminish.
For macro traders, the shift in the stocks-to-bitcoin ratio undermines bitcoin's status as an asset that can effectively enhance a portfolio's performance. This also contradicts more optimistic price projections for the next bull market, which predict values of $300,000 or higher, based on past cycles when bitcoin's smaller market cap allowed for rapid price increases.
This situation also indicates a maturation of bitcoin as an asset. Significant price spikes are often characteristic of younger assets, where limited liquidity means a few buyers can dramatically influence the market. As bitcoin's market cap exceeds one trillion dollars, and with an array of trading options like spot ETFs, options, and futures, such explosive price movements become increasingly challenging to achieve.
In essence, while the mechanisms that have made bitcoin more accessible have also made it less susceptible to drastic price swings.