Bitcoin is set for its third consecutive monthly increase, but rising yields, escalating oil prices, and two significant events in November may challenge its momentum heading into Q4.
By James Van Straten|Edited by Oliver KnightSep 29, 2026, 5:45 a.m. EDT1 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on BTC Price YTD (CoinDesk)SummaryShow- Bitcoin has increased approximately 7% in September following a 25% rise in August.
- If Bitcoin closes positively in September, it would mark the first time since 2013 that a positive August is followed by a positive September.
- Upcoming events, including a potential Anthropic IPO and the U.S. midterm elections, may introduce volatility in Q4.
With a roughly 7% increase in September after a 25% surge in August, Bitcoin is on track to break a long-standing trend where positive Augusts have historically been succeeded by negative Septembers. A favorable closing in the remaining two days would not only grant Bitcoin three successive monthly gains from July to September but also result in a quarterly increase of over 40%, marking its first positive quarter since Q3 2025.
The fourth quarter is historically Bitcoin’s strongest period, with CoinGlass data indicating an average gain of around 77%. Currently, Bitcoin is priced at $84,000; however, the economic environment is unstable. Global bond yields are on the rise, with the U.S. 10-year yield surpassing 5.2%, and the MOVE index, which gauges bond market volatility, is above 100, nearing year-to-date highs. Additionally, oil prices have remained above $90 a barrel, fueling inflation worries, while gold prices fell by approximately 3% on Monday, settling just above $4,000 an ounce.
The fourth quarter will present two significant challenges regarding liquidity and risk tolerance. Reports indicate that Anthropic is planning a November IPO, which could attract investor interest and capital towards a significant new equity offering, although details about its timing and size remain undecided. Furthermore, the upcoming U.S. midterm elections could contribute to increased volatility as investors evaluate the potential policy implications.
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Why it matters:
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