The price of the first cryptocurrency is expected to hit a cycle low of $57,000 in October this year, according to investor Michael Terpin in an interview with Cointelegraph.
Terpin explained that his estimate is based on the "historical average": it typically takes about 12 months from the peak (October 2025, when Bitcoin surpassed $126,000) to the bottom.
According to Terpin, for a bull market to resume, the price of digital gold must return to $100,000. This level could be reached if the asset's price drops below the 200-week moving average—a critical support level. However, he considers this scenario unlikely.
“There is a chance to see $100,000 this year, but it is small. A strong ETF demand, continued buying from Michael Saylor's Strategy, and no liquidations during a sharp drop are needed,” he added.
Other experts, including trader Peter Brandt, have also indicated a potential bottom this fall.
Should Bitcoin continue with the most remarkable cyclic patterns of any market in the past 15 years, an investable low is scheduled for Sep/Oct 2026. That low might or might not penetrate the Feb 2026 low. The next high (should patterns continue) will be between $300k and $500k…
— The Factor Report (@PeterLBrandt) April 23, 2026
Analyst Matthew Hyland noted that investors remain uncertain about the sustainability of the current market dynamics, despite the recent recovery. He believes there is no euphoria or clear interest—many are simply interpreting the situation through their own biases.
It does appear to me the larger expected consensus outcome for #BTC is another leg lower by October
— Matthew Hyland (@MatthewHyland_) April 25, 2026
There does not seem to be much euphoria or interest; many just projecting it to fit their bias
Therefore the calls for lower whilst price rallies is a sign of disbelief https://t.co/NmDuBTPatD
“It seems to me that the broader expected consensus outcome for Bitcoin is another drop by October,” he wrote.
Market Overview
As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading around $77,800, down 0.3% in the last 24 hours. On the night of April 27, the asset reached a local high of $79,400 before sharply retreating.
Ethereum's price fell by 0.2% to $2,300. Most of the largest cryptocurrencies experienced a correction of about 0.5%.
The Fear and Greed Index has moved out of a prolonged fear phase and shifted towards a neutral indicator.
The market received support from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and a reduction in geopolitical tensions. Products based on the first cryptocurrency attracted $823 million over the week.
“All of this indicates that the market is returning to moderate positioning with risk in mind,” commented Dominic John from Zeus Research.
Min Jun, a researcher at Presto Research, emphasized that the market has stopped reacting sharply to news from the Middle East due to investor fatigue. She noted that participants have shifted their focus to the upcoming FOMC meeting on April 29.
The market is fully confident that the current range of the Fed's key rate will be maintained. CME FedWatch.
Market commentator Nic Pakrin noted that the upcoming meeting may be the last for current Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whose term expires in May.
Wednesday is Powell's almost certain last FOMC meeting as Fed Chair.
— Nic (@nicrypto) April 26, 2026
Rate decision is almost certainly a hold flat.
Unfortunately, no dot-plot released at this meeting so we won't have a sense of which way the FOMC is tilting for future cuts.
We'll have to wait for the June…
On April 23, Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading, predicted Bitcoin's rise amid a low Sharpe ratio.