Summary
- Bitcoin has seen a rise of 7.33% this September, potentially marking its best performance for the month since 2013.
- This would create a record of four consecutive positive Septembers, following a streak of six negative ones from 2017 to 2022.
- The final outcome will depend on the closing price on September 30; Bitcoin is currently hovering around $83,600.
The trend of disappointing Septembers for Bitcoin may be coming to an end. With a current increase of 7.33% this month, Bitcoin is on track to achieve its highest September returns in the history tracked by Coinglass, provided there are no unexpected developments before the month's end.
The margin is extremely close, as September 2024 recorded a 7.29% return, making this year’s performance nearly tied with just one day remaining.
Myriad: How high will Bitcoin go? Click to make your prediction.Historically, Bitcoin has struggled in September, closing in the red eight times out of 13 years from 2013 to 2025, including a streak of six consecutive losses from 2017 through 2022. Despite this month’s gains, the average return for September remains a negative 2.34%, the lowest of all months according to CoinGlass data.
However, recent trends indicate a shift. Bitcoin concluded September with increases of 3.91% in 2023, 7.29% in 2024, and 5.16% in 2025. A positive outcome this year would mark four consecutive months of gains, the longest such streak recorded.
Bitcoin monthly returns. Image: CoinGlassThe so-called “Red September” phenomenon is not exclusive to cryptocurrencies; the S&P 500 has also experienced average losses in September since 1945, attributed to various factors including vacations and tax loss harvesting strategies.
September 2026: A Different Story
Bitcoin started September around $78,500 after a significant 25% spike in August. However, the situation took a downturn mid-month. On September 15, the Senate's Clarity Act failed to pass a cloture vote, resulting in a loss of $450.4 million in spot Bitcoin ETFs, their worst day since June.
Shortly thereafter, the Federal Reserve increased rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4%, marking its first hike since 2023. Such changes in interest rates significantly affect risk assets like cryptocurrencies and stocks, prompting Bitcoin's price to dip to about $75,000 following the rate adjustment.
This setback led Bitcoin to slow down, and it appeared that September would once again end negatively. However, a turnaround occurred as ETFs attracted approximately $2.98 billion over a span of seven consecutive sessions, including nearly $1 billion on September 21, marking their best performance since October 2025. This influx caused a squeeze on shorts, resulting in over $800 million in liquidations within a day, and Bitcoin surged to $87,354, the highest level seen since late January.
Chart Analysis
Since that surge, Bitcoin has retraced about 4%. On Monday, it fell to $83,000 as Brent crude oil prices rose above $100 after President Donald Trump rejected Iran's conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Bitcoin price data. Image: TradingviewLooking at Bitcoin’s daily chart, the pullback appears modest. Fibonacci retracement levels indicate that support and resistance are situated between $74,978 and $87,354.
Current trend indicators remain bullish. The Average Directional Index, which assesses trend strength on a scale from 0 to 100, stands at 42.3, well above the 25 mark used by traders to identify strong trends. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index, which ranges from 0 to 100, shows a reading of 61.2, suggesting Bitcoin is not yet overbought. The 50-day moving average is also above the 200-day average, forming a classic bullish pattern known as a golden cross.
If Bitcoin drops below $82,626, the next support level would be between $81,166 and $79,705, correlating with the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels.
Looking Ahead
Even with a positive outcome in September, 2026 remains challenging for investors. Bitcoin is currently about 4.4% lower than the approximate $87,497 it was trading at at the beginning of the year.
Last year's positive September was followed by a negative October, with a decline of 3.69%, and a significant 23% drop in the fourth quarter. The Federal Reserve has meetings scheduled for October 27-28 and December 8-9.
To maintain the record for September, Bitcoin must close the month above approximately $83,600. Historically, October averages a return of 19.92%, but caution is advised regarding expectations for this year’s performance.
Disclaimer
The perspectives and opinions presented by the author are solely for informational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial, investment, or other advice.