Bitcoin experienced a 42.71% rise in Q3, its best performance since 2017, while U.S. spot ETFs saw significant inflows totaling $6.34 billion.
Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, recorded a remarkable increase of 42.71% in the third quarter, marking its best performance for this period since 2017, as reported by CoinGlass.
In 2017, Bitcoin's third-quarter rise was even more significant, at 80.41%. However, subsequent years saw lower increases, with the highest being 25.01% in 2021. This recent surge followed a challenging first half of 2026, where Bitcoin saw losses of 22.2% in Q1 and 14.09% in Q2.
By the market close on September 30, Bitcoin was trading around $83,700, with a slight increase to $83,755 shortly after.
Bitcoin ETFs Experience Significant Inflows
During the third quarter, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted net inflows totaling $6.34 billion, according to SoSoValue, marking a recovery after a $5 billion outflow in the second quarter.
Inflows began at $172 million in July, surged to $3.52 billion in August, before declining to $2.65 billion in September. On the final trading day of the quarter, however, ETFs faced a net outflow of approximately $149 million, ending a nine-day streak of inflows.
Trends in Market Activity
Glassnode analysts noted a slowdown in inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, despite an initial spike attracting nearly $1 billion on September 21, the highest single-day volume in a year. Following this, inflows decreased significantly amid stagnant price movements. Average daily trading volumes on spot exchanges and U.S. ETFs have remained low, around $6.4 billion, indicating limited market activity.
Profit-taking among investors has been notably subdued compared to previous peaks in 2024 and 2025, although long-term holders have recently begun to sell more actively, with their share of realized profits increasing from 34% to 55% in the week leading to September 29.
Price Resistance and Support Levels
According to Glassnode, a large sell order cluster has developed around $85,000-$85,500, which has grown substantially since September 24. Bitcoin has tested this resistance but has not yet broken through. Immediate support is identified at the True Market Mean, currently at $77,200, while the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis is estimated at about $73,300.
Long-Term Outlook and Citi's Revised Forecast
CryptoQuant's Trader_Gemini highlighted that the MVRV Z-Score remains above its 365-day moving average, historically indicating bullish trends. While a short-term correction is possible, the long-term outlook appears positive as long as this metric holds above the average.
Citigroup has raised its 12-month Bitcoin price forecast from $82,000 to $113,000, also increasing its Ethereum target from $2,240 to $3,028. Analysts attribute this adjustment to heightened market activity and renewed investor interest in ETFs, predicting a gradual increase in Bitcoin allocations by financial advisors over the next year.
Despite setbacks such as the failed CLARITY Act, which stalled in the Senate, Citi believes these developments could prompt regulatory progress from the SEC, potentially improving market sentiment.
