The leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, concluded the third quarter with an impressive rise of 42.71%, marking its strongest performance for this period since 2017, according to data from CoinGlass.

Quarterly Bitcoin performance since 2013. Source: CoinGlass.

In the same timeframe in 2017, Bitcoin surged by 80.41%. Over the following years, the performance in the third quarter did not surpass 25.01%, which was achieved in 2021.

This increase followed a decline in the first half of 2026, where Bitcoin experienced a loss of 22.2% in Q1 and 14.09% in Q2.

As of the market close on September 30, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $83,700, with its price at the time of writing reaching $83,755.

Hourly BTC/USDT chart on Binance. Source: TradingView.

Bitcoin ETFs Attract $6.34 Billion

Net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $6.34 billion during the third quarter, as reported by SoSoValue. This figure represents the best performance of these funds in 2026.

Net flow dynamics in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. Source: SoSoValue.

In contrast, the second quarter saw investors pulling out about $5 billion from these funds.

Inflows in July amounted to $172 million, which rose to $3.52 billion in August, but then fell by approximately 25% to $2.65 billion in September.

On the last trading day of the quarter, September 30, the funds recorded a net outflow of around $149 million, breaking a nine-day inflow streak during which approximately $3.1 billion was directed into these instruments.

Slowing Inflows

Analysts from Glassnode noted a slowdown in inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Bitcoin is holding up, but it has hit a wall of sellers at $85K. Our new Week On-chain maps what it would take to break through. https://t.co/fuFJaxH9f9

— glassnode (@glassnode) September 30, 2026

On September 21, the funds attracted nearly $1 billion, marking the largest single-day volume in about a year. According to SoSoValue, the following day saw inflows of $714.75 million before they began to decline.

Glassnode's ETF data covers the period up to September 28, during which they recorded a significant reduction in inflows amid sideways price movements.

Trading activity has also remained relatively low, with the average daily volume on spot crypto exchanges and U.S. ETFs hovering around $6.4 billion, marking the lower end of the range since these instruments launched.

Glassnode highlighted that there is currently no broad-based demand to support the ongoing price movement. Analysts noted that such demand would typically be indicated by a consistent increase in volumes while maintaining prices above the True Market Mean, which reflects the average acquisition cost of Bitcoin by active market participants.

Bitcoin is holding above the True Market Mean and the cost basis for short-term holders. Source: Glassnode.

Profit-taking remained significantly weaker compared to the peaks seen in 2024 and 2025.

However, long-term holders have started to sell more actively. In the week leading up to September 29, the volume of realized profits for these holders nearly doubled compared to the breakout week, with their share of total realized profits increasing from 34% to 55%.

Resistance Established Around $85,000-$85,500

According to Glassnode, a substantial sell order cluster has formed around $85,000-$85,500 on the Binance spot market.

This cluster emerged on September 24 and has since tripled in size. The price has tested the lower half of this range but has failed to break through.

Bitcoin sell order cluster in the $85,000-$85,500 range on the Binance spot market. Source: Glassnode.

Analysts noted that a sustained hold above $85,500 would signal a breakthrough of the largest resistance in the exchange's order book.

Immediate support is seen at the True Market Mean, currently at $77,200, which has been maintained since September 18.

Further below is the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, representing the average cost of coins held by holders for less than 155 days, estimated at around $73,300.

Glassnode observed that periods during 2023-2025 when the price remained above both metrics coincided with the strongest phases of upward trends.

CryptoQuant Assesses Long-Term Structure

A contributor at CryptoQuant, known as Trader_Gemini, pointed out the performance of the MVRV Z-Score, which has remained above its 365-day moving average.

MVRV Z-Score Holds Above Its 365-Day Average: Long-Term Structure Still Favors the Upside

“Historically, once the MVRV Z-Score moved above its 365-day average, that average often acted as support during the broader bullish phase.” – By @TraderGemin pic.twitter.com/XZbJTMvKbr

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) October 1, 2026

The MVRV Z-Score compares Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value, considering historical variations.

Trader_Gemini noted that in previous bullish cycles, the annual average following a breakout by the indicator often served as a support level.

While the analyst allowed for a short-term correction, he believes that as long as the MVRV Z-Score remains above the 365-day average, the long-term structure favors continued growth.

A sustained drop below this level without a subsequent recovery would signal a weakening long-term trend.

Meanwhile, Glassnode characterized the current movement as an early stage of an upward trend with limited market participation.

Citi Raises Bitcoin Forecast

Citigroup has upgraded its 12-month Bitcoin price forecast from $82,000 to $113,000. The bank also raised its target for Ethereum from $2,240 to $3,028, as reported by Reuters.

Analysts attributed this revision to increased activity in the cryptocurrency market, a favorable macroeconomic backdrop, and a resurgence of investor interest in ETFs.

They suggested that investments in digital assets may resume at a slower but steadier pace. Citi estimates that financial advisors and brokers will gradually increase Bitcoin allocations in their portfolios, predicting an inflow of $5 billion over the next year.

The bank also evaluated the implications of the failed CLARITY Act, noting that on September 15, the U.S. Senate was unable to advance the bill.

Citi analysts believe the setback has narrowed the path for market structure legislation but has encouraged the SEC to announce new regulations, easing negative sentiment, experts concluded.

It is worth mentioning that on September 22, Bitcoin surpassed $87,000 amid the largest inflow into U.S. spot ETFs in the past 12 months.

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