Jurien Timmer, the firm's Director of Global Macro, labels this zone as one for accumulation, though he highlights the absence of a catalyst for recovery at this time.
By Shaurya Malwa Jul 12, 2026, 11:30 a.m. 1 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on SummaryShow- Bitcoin is nearing the lower support line of a longstanding power-law price model around $58,000, indicating it is approaching a historical accumulation area.
- Indicators showing how far bitcoin's price is below its trendline and relative to gold have dropped to levels reminiscent of the 2018 and 2022 lows; however, Jurrien Timmer from Fidelity refrains from declaring a bottom.
- Timmer anticipates bitcoin may trade sideways near this support for several months without a liquidity catalyst, noting a shift of speculative capital from bitcoin to gold and then to semiconductor stocks.
Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity's director of global macro, indicates that bitcoin is nearing the lower boundary of the model he has tracked for years.
This model, known as the power law, represents bitcoin's entire price history on a logarithmic scale defined by three curves: an upper resistance line, a middle trendline, and a lower support line that has captured every significant bottom since 2015.
According to Timmer's latest chart, the support line is situated close to $58,000, while bitcoin is trading around $62,700, bringing it closer to that level.
The lower panel of his chart suggests an accumulation area, showing how far bitcoin is trading above or below the power law trendline; the current gap is at negative 56%, a depth that identifies the accumulation zone and aligns with the lows seen in 2018 and 2022. Additionally, the 52-week measure of the bitcoin-to-gold ratio has also dropped significantly, reaching around negative 100%.
Despite these indicators, Timmer is not ready to declare a bottom just yet. He observes that the speculative premium which once drove bitcoin above $120,000 last year has largely diminished, global money supply growth is on a decline, and he sees no reversal catalyst until liquidity returns.
His analysis suggests that bitcoin could remain near the support line for an extended period before any recovery, rather than bouncing back quickly.
The rapid capital has already exited; Timmer notes that it has shifted from bitcoin to gold, and subsequently from gold to semiconductor stocks, which are currently attracting attention.
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Digital Assets: Quarterly Review and Outlook Q2
Digital Assets: Quarterly Review and Outlook Q2
Digital assets posted a third consecutive quarter of losses in Q2 2026, marking the longest losing streak since the 2022 bear market, as institutional capital shifted towards AI stocks and Bitcoin ETFs faced their largest quarterly outflow since inception. Our report analyzes the reasons behind this divergence, ongoing structural adoption, and key signals to monitor for Q3.
By CoinDesk ResearchJul 10, 2026Digital assets posted a third consecutive quarter of losses in Q2 2026, marking the longest losing streak since the 2022 bear market, as institutional capital shifted towards AI stocks and Bitcoin ETFs faced their largest quarterly outflow since inception. Our report analyzes the reasons behind this divergence, ongoing structural adoption, and key signals to monitor for Q3.
Why it matters:
Digital assets posted a third consecutive quarter of losses in Q2 2026, marking the longest losing streak since the 2022 bear market, as institutional capital shifted towards AI stocks and Bitcoin ETFs faced their largest quarterly outflow since inception. Our report analyzes the reasons behind this divergence, ongoing structural adoption, and key signals to monitor for Q3.
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