Bitcoin is trading near historical lows, indicating a deep bear market, but analysts caution that a prolonged period of stagnation may be forthcoming.
By Shaurya Malwa Jun 11, 2026, 4:34 a.m. 3 min readMake preferred onKey Points:
- Bitcoin is hovering around its historically low 200-week average, a level typically associated with late-stage bear markets, despite a recent spike in U.S. inflation.
- The Crypto Fear and Greed Index indicates extreme fear at 9, with major cryptocurrencies experiencing only minor recoveries that fail to offset recent losses amid record ETF outflows.
- Factors such as high inflation, uncertainty around U.S. regulatory clarity, increasing global interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and declining stock prices are hindering the chances of a rapid Bitcoin rebound ahead of the June FOMC meeting.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading at a level often reached only towards the end of bear markets, a situation that persists even after the most significant U.S. inflation report in three years.
According to Checkonchain data, Bitcoin's price has approached its 200-week average, a significant long-term trend line monitored by long-term investors. This model suggests that Bitcoin is in the bottom 10% of its historical valuation range, a zone typically observed only during the most severe phases of previous bear markets.
Bear market bottoms unfold over time, not instantaneously.
— _Checkonchain (@_checkonchain) June 10, 2026
Initially, price-sensitive investors capitulate, followed by a challenging phase: months of stagnant trading that gradually erode the confidence of remaining holders.
In our latest newsletter, @_Checkmatey_ analyzes the evidence… pic.twitter.com/ReSQFfqi5R
Market sentiment remains severely pessimistic, with the Crypto Fear and Greed Index at 9, reflecting extreme fear, down from 11 last week and significantly lower than 48 a month ago.
Such low readings typically indicate that price-sensitive sellers have already completed most of their selling. Nevertheless, Checkonchain cautions that market bottoms evolve gradually, with initial capitulation followed by extended periods of sideways trading that can test the resolve of those who remain invested.
This week, Bitcoin briefly dipped below $60,000 for the first time since 2024, trading at $62,623 on Thursday, which was a 1.9% increase for the day but still down for the week, in part due to a record series of ETF outflows.
The market's bounce was widespread but shallow. Ether increased by 1.4% to $1,651, BNB rose by 1.3% to $595, solana gained 0.9% to $65, and dogecoin saw a 1.1% rise to $0.085. Conversely, XRP decreased by 0.3% to $1.12. All major cryptocurrencies remain lower over the past week, with ether down 6.5% and XRP down 7.5%. The gains on Thursday only slightly mitigated the weekly decline.
The inflation situation does not favor a quick recovery. In May, U.S. consumer prices rose by 0.5% from April and 4.2% year-over-year, marking the fastest annual increase since early 2023, driven by rising energy costs due to the war in Iran, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Wednesday.
The core inflation measure, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.2%, which was less than economists had predicted, representing the only weak point in an otherwise hot report.
Yves Renno, head of Trading at global crypto payments platform Wirex, shared with CoinDesk, "Expectations for U.S. regulatory clarity have waned again, as the Polymarket odds for the Clarity Act passing in 2026 have dropped from 62% to 48% this week."
"All eyes are now on the FOMC meeting on June 16th-17th, and the tone set by Warsh will be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin rebounds to the $68,000-$72,000 range or falls below $60,000 entirely."
Moreover, pressures extend beyond the crypto market. Global equities fell to a more than one-month low this week amid a technology-driven selloff, compounded by U.S. military actions in Iran that ended a ceasefire established in April.
The MSCI All Country World Index, which tracks global stocks, fell to its lowest point since May 5, while the Asia Pacific index dropped 0.8% to a three-week low. Brent crude oil prices increased by 1.8% to around $95 per barrel. The European Central Bank is anticipated to raise rates later Thursday, marking its first increase since September 2023, with bond traders expecting higher borrowing costs globally.