On October 6, Bitcoin commemorated the one-year anniversary of its all-time high (ATH) above $126,000 on the Binance exchange. Currently, the leading cryptocurrency is trading around $86,000, which is approximately 32% lower than its peak.

BTC/USDT price dynamics on Binance from June 2025 to October 6, 2026. Source: TradingView.

Over the past year, the asset has experienced a decline of more than 50% from its peak before undergoing a recovery. The current market structure contrasts with the environment that preceded last year's crash: leveraged positions appear to be less overheated, while inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have slowed down.

From $126,000 to $58,600 and Back

Following the achievement of its ATH, Bitcoin maintained its value near the record for only a few days. On October 11, 2025, the cryptocurrency market faced its largest liquidation cascade to date, with forced closures exceeding $19 billion. At one point, Bitcoin's price dropped to around $102,000 on Binance.

The downward trend continued in the following months, and by July 1, 2026, Bitcoin fell below $58,000, marking a decline of over 54% from its historical high. Since that July low, the asset has rebounded by approximately 49%.

BTC/USDT price dynamics on Binance from June to October 6, 2026. Source: TradingView.

Leverage Returns to Moderate Levels

On October 2, analysts from QCP noted that the annual funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual futures was around 5.4%. They believe this indicates that the current recovery is primarily driven by spot capital rather than increased leverage.

Glassnode also reported a normalization of positions in the derivatives market. Open interest in futures has returned to normal ranges, while options metrics decreased following quarterly expirations.

The selling pressure in the perpetual futures market has eased, and spot takers finished the week as net buyers. This situation differs from the aftermath of the 2025 ATH, when excessive leverage contributed to the record liquidation cascade.

ETF Inflows Slow Down

Institutional demand through ETFs has become less clear-cut. On October 5, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $89.9 million, ending two days of inflows totaling around $293 million.

Source: SoSoValue.

BlackRock's IBIT saw an inflow of $69.9 million, while ARK Invest's ARKB and 21Shares experienced outflows of $85.2 million, and Fidelity's FBTC had outflows of $74.5 million.

Source: SoSoValue.

Glassnode also highlighted a notable cooling of ETF flows following the previous surge. Trading volumes for these funds are currently near the lower end of their typical range.

High Treasury Yields Limit Growth Potential

Following a weak employment report in September, the likelihood of the U.S. Federal Reserve raising interest rates in October has decreased to 21.6%.

Source: CME FedWatch.

However, long-term borrowing costs remain elevated, with the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds around 5.3% and 30-year bonds at approximately 5.7%. Both figures are nearing 24-year highs.

QCP noted that the weak employment data supports the Fed's pause scenario for October, while high yields on long-term bonds continue to constrain the growth potential of risk assets.

As of this publication, Bitcoin is holding steady at about $86,000. Analysts have identified $87,200 as the nearest resistance level. In a favorable scenario, a breakthrough at $87,400 could pave the way toward the psychological milestone of $90,000. Support is seen near $85,000, with further support around $83,000.

It is worth noting that Bitcoin completed the third quarter with a 42.71% increase, marking the best performance for this period since 2017, according to CoinGlass data as of October 1. Net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs over the past three months reached $6.34 billion.

Follow ForkLog on social media

Telegram (main channel) Facebook X Did you find an error in the text? Highlight it and press CTRL+ENTER