The likelihood of the country's leader being overthrown has surpassed 50% on Polymarket.

Iranian authorities have restricted internet access amid ongoing mass unrest. In response, the community has urged residents to use the encrypted messenger BitChat, supported by Jack Dorsey.

The people of Iran can use a very simple app: BITCHAT, that doesn't need an internet connection at all. Just text communication via Bluetooth connection proximity and mesh Bluetooth network. pic.twitter.com/8yz4LBC98m

— Abstract Wine🍷 (@AbstractWine) January 8, 2026

According to Chromestats, downloads of the app surged by 43,000 in just the last day and by 437,900 over the week. However, the exact share from Iran remains unclear.

Source: Chromestats.

Previously, the messenger gained significant attention in Nepal and Indonesia amid protests against the ruling authorities in those countries.

BitChat does not require an internet connection: each Bluetooth device in the network acts as both a client and a relay, transmitting encrypted messages up to 30 meters away.

High-speed internet and communication can also be provided by Elon Musk's Starlink satellites. Users have urged the billionaire to deploy equipment in Iran, which he has done during protests in June.

Reports indicate that Musk has responded to these requests.

In light of the internet shutdown in Iran, Elon Musk opened the Starlink network for free use for protesters.

This happened following an appeal from Deputy Minister Almog Cohen through businessman Dovi Frances.

Musk pledged to keep the network open and prevent attempts at… pic.twitter.com/LswkE9sGNK

— Eli Afriat 🇮🇱🎗 (@EliAfriatISR) January 8, 2026

Likelihood of Overthrowing Iran's Leader Exceeds 50% on Polymarket

Users on Polymarket estimate the probability of Ali Khamenei's overthrow at 55%. This figure has risen by 20% in the last day.

Source: Polymarket.

The total volume of bets has already exceeded $559,000.

The sharp increase was triggered by mass protests and a warning from U.S. President Donald Trump about potential strikes in response to violent suppression of the protests. The death toll from the unrest has already exceeded 45 people.

Earlier in January, traders assessed the likelihood of Khamenei's departure at below 40%.

In a related market with a total betting volume of $2.5 million, the situation is as follows: traders estimate a 16% chance of Khamenei's overthrow by the end of January and a 29% chance by the end of March. Source: Polymarket.

Suspicions of Insider Trading

The community has previously criticized Polymarket for refusing to recognize U.S. actions in Venezuela as an "invasion." The turnover for the disputed contract reached $10.5 million.

Another point of debate has been suspicions of insider trading. One user reportedly made over $400,000, with their account created just days before the U.S. special operation.

This situation has drawn the attention of authorities: Congressman Richie Torres has proposed legislation banning insiders from trading on prediction markets.

At the time of writing, the profile of the user has become unavailable. It is unclear whether it was intentionally deactivated by the Polymarket team or if the trader deleted the account themselves.

Meanwhile, Lookonchain analysts have noted suspicious activity around another market where users assess the likelihood of U.S. strikes on Iran.

Insiders are betting on the Polymarket that "US strikes Iran by Jan 31, 2026".

4 newly created wallets simultaneously placed bets that "US strikes Iran by Jan 31, 2026" when the odds were below 18%, and haven't made any other bets.

Do they know something?… pic.twitter.com/gP6a3kpcoc

— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) January 8, 2026

Four new wallets placed bets on a "Yes" outcome when the odds were at 18%. Experts noted that no other trading activity from these addresses has been recorded on the platform.

However, users discovered inaccuracies in Lookonchain's data: one of the mentioned accounts does have a history on Polymarket, having previously participated in forecasts related to meme coins.

Recall that at the end of December, Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley called Bitcoin a salvation from economic collapse in Iran.