This week, the focus of "Deconstruction" is on the mid-year report from 21Shares, tightening regulations on the crypto market and AI in Russia and the U.S., a radical restructuring of the Ethereum Foundation, Binance's exit from Europe, and the fight against international crypto crime, along with the first results of Donald Trump's presidency.
21Shares Report and New Trends
Despite Bitcoin's drop to $58,000 amid a strong dollar, analysts at 21Shares have maintained their forecast of $100,000 by year-end, noting the maturation of the market and capital concentration around four established sectors rather than hype-driven NFTs and meme coins.
The main emerging narratives include the tokenization of real assets, which in closed institutional networks reaches $350 billion (thanks to the launch of bond tokenization by DTCC), explosive growth in prediction markets to $57 billion, and the recognition of stablecoins as the industry's key product linking the banking system and blockchain.
State Control of Crypto and AI in Russia and the U.S.
Rosfinmonitoring is implementing the Travel Rule standard for FATF: now, for any transfer of digital assets, platforms must provide client data, and transactions over 1 million rubles are subject to mandatory oversight, effectively eliminating the anonymity of the P2P segment in favor of regulated brokers.
Simultaneously, a bill on AI has been approved, introducing the concepts of "sovereign" and "national" models (over 1 billion parameters): priority for state subsidies is given to networks based on local infrastructure, which excludes small startups from government contracts.
A trend toward limiting dual-use technologies is also evident in the closed release of GPT-5.5-Cyber by OpenAI for automatic code correction. Due to U.S. export controls, a similar model, Claude Mythos 5 from Anthropic, was forcibly shut down, despite outperforming GPT-5.5 in AISI tests. To avoid blocks, OpenAI coordinated the launch with authorities and introduced a free program, Patch the Planet, for auditing open-source projects, marking the end of uncontrolled AI use in cybersecurity.
Corporate Restructuring of the Ethereum Foundation
The Ethereum Foundation is cutting its budget by 40% and laying off 20% of its staff (54 people), transforming into an endowment fund with the goal of reducing reserve spending from 15% to 5% by 2030. Vitalik Buterin has called for taking a cue from Bitcoin, opting for stability over new features and closing the privacy research division (Privacy and Scaling Explorations), as the experimental phase has ended and technologies need to be integrated into the protocol.
In this context, the resolution of critical technical issues—such as the threat of hidden MEV taxes, builder cartelization, and network centralization risks—is being shifted to independent commercial labs like Ethlabs, created by former foundation researchers.
Binance Withdraws Application in Greece
Binance has proactively withdrawn its license application in Greece following Reuters reports that regulators were prepared to deny the platform, opting instead to redirect resources towards obtaining authorization in another European jurisdiction.
Under the stringent MiCA regulations, a "passporting" mechanism applies across all 27 EU countries; however, analysts estimate that up to 75% of the 3,000 previously operating crypto companies in the region will close or exit the market due to their inability to comply with traditional European banking standards.
Binance's delays are leading to a loss of market share to Coinbase and Kraken, which have already secured licenses, while ordinary users face the risk of forced account closures and the blocking of fiat gateways in euros by European banks.
Strike Against Criminal IT Infrastructure
The U.S. Department of Justice has changed its strategy against the shadow market: instead of ineffective wallet blocking, the agency seized the cloud account of the Huione Group conglomerate, whose server infrastructure supported the criminal marketplace Haowang Guarantee, laundering at least $4 billion in illegal funds through stablecoins and Bitcoin.
At the same time, Thailand's Special Investigations Department dismantled a scheme involving gray Chinese capital with an annual turnover of $300 million, where illegal mining using stolen electricity from a state company (resulting in $29 million in damages) was used to legitimize income from scam centers in Myanmar.
The widespread use of stablecoins by fraudsters is forcing regulators to pressure coin issuers and major exchanges, leading to automatic freezes on transfers and stricter KYC/AML measures for ordinary investors.
Results of Trump's Crypto Policy
At the midpoint of Donald Trump's presidency, who received $238 million from crypto lobbyists, key campaign promises have been fulfilled: the firing of Gary Gensler from the SEC, cessation of prosecution against major crypto companies, establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve (of 328,000 coins solely from confiscations), legislative blockage of the digital dollar until 2030, passage of the stablecoin law (GENIUS Act), and pardons for Ross Ulbricht and CZ.
However, lobbying for laws and directives for federal systems to transition to post-quantum cryptography occur alongside Trump launching personal family meme coins (TRUMP, MELANIA), where 80% of the issuance belongs to family structures, prompting accusations from Democrats of exceeding standards for impeachment. Despite unprecedented political support in the U.S., the crypto market has corrected by 28% since the beginning of the year.
This is a condensed version of the podcast. Watch the full episode:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Us95V7_zuio
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