Bitcoin has stopped reacting to central bank decisions after the fact and has begun to anticipate macroeconomic trends in advance. This conclusion was reached by analysts at Binance Research in their weekly market commentary on April 2.

A structural shift occurred following the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024. Analysts tracked the relationship between central bank interest rate decisions and BTC prices—both before and after the introduction of ETFs.

Prior to 2024, digital gold mirrored the easing cycle with a slight lag, showing a correlation of +0.21 with the GCBI. After the ETF launch, this relationship flipped and intensified threefold to -0.778, indicating that Bitcoin began to move ahead of central banks' announcements.

According to analysts, the reason for this change is the shift in the marginal buyer. Institutional investors entering through ETFs are pricing in macro scenarios 6–12 months ahead. The first cryptocurrency has transformed from a "lagging receiver" of macro signals into an asset that leads the monetary cycle.

Analysts also note that the peak of global easing may already be priced into Bitcoin. Crypto-native factors—regulatory progress and institutional flows—are currently influencing prices more than the direction of monetary policy.

Stagflation Context

This report comes amid a sharp revision of interest rate expectations.

“Since the onset of the Iranian conflict at the end of February, expectations for two rate cuts by the Fed this year have dropped to zero; the ECB has shifted from a 'pause' to expectations of about 2.5 hikes; and the Bank of England has reversed from two cuts to two hikes—an unusually sharp reassessment,” the report states.

Revisions in rate expectations from major central banks following the start of the conflict. Source: Binance Research.

Rising oil prices amid limited supplies are heightening stagflation risks—a combination of high inflation and economic slowdown. In 2022, a similar environment saw Bitcoin plummet from around $69,000 to approximately $16,000. Analysts suggest a similar short-term scenario could unfold, but with caveats.

“In the short term, [stagflation] is negative—especially during the Fed's tightening phase. However, in the long term, it could benefit Bitcoin if policy shifts towards easing or if concerns about fiat currency devaluation intensify—supporting the narrative of 'scarce digital gold',” Binance Research notes.

Expectations of Tightening May Not Materialize

Markets have priced in a shift towards rate hikes from the three largest central banks. Analysts at Binance Research consider these expectations risky.

“The market interprets the current crisis as a major shock to monetary policy tightening—this interpretation is highly debatable and could represent a significant miscalculation,” analysts warn.

Historically, central banks have chosen to support the economy rather than combat inflation during periods of slowing growth and rising prices. In 1990, following the oil shock, the Fed moved to cut rates. In 2019, it implemented three cuts within three months, despite markets pricing in tightening.

This week, signals from the Fed also indicate a softer stance. Chair Jerome Powell stated that the Fed is inclined not to react to inflationary shocks caused by supply factors. Board member Stephen Miran argued for a need to cut rates by 100 basis points in 2026, asserting that inflation expectations have not been adversely affected by the oil shock.

Recall that in January, ForkLog published a review of the annual report from Binance Research, in which analysts predicted a "restart of risks" in 2026 due to synchronized easing from central banks and a wave of deregulation.