Analysts at Bernstein have maintained their "ambitious" forecast for Bitcoin, setting a target of $150,000 by the end of the year. They described the 54% drop from October's peak as "soft," according to The Block.

The current correction has lasted about three quarters, the experts noted. Historically, major bear phases have stretched over 12-15 months, with price declines from local highs ranging from 75% to 90%.

They believe this trend indicates the maturity of the crypto market. However, it remains unclear whether the downturn has fully concluded, Bernstein remarked.

What Supports the Forecast

Bernstein believes that fundamental factors remain favorable for Bitcoin's continued growth. One of these is capital flows.

Since the beginning of 2026, the total inflow through corporate Bitcoin treasuries and spot ETFs has reached around $10 billion. Meanwhile, investors withdrew $5.5 billion from exchange-traded funds. However, given the total assets of structured products amounting to $74 billion, Bernstein considers this outflow limited. Corporate buyers have provided a positive net inflow.

The primary source of demand remains Strategy. Since January, the company has acquired approximately 175,000 BTC (~$14 billion), increasing its reserves to 847,363 BTC. Bernstein estimates that the company's debt load is about 13% of its Bitcoin portfolio's value, and its existing liquidity is sufficient to cover interest payments and dividends for over 17 months.

Analysts also noted that Strategy retains the option to sell Bitcoin worth up to $1.25 billion to fund dividends, interest payments, and share buybacks.

At the same time, the company's purchases in 2026 have offset sales from public miners, some of whom have redirected capital into AI infrastructure and data centers.

Additional market support could come from regulatory changes in the U.S. Bernstein pointed out:

  • the advancement of the GENIUS Act on stablecoins;
  • the launch of perpetual cryptocurrency futures through Kalshi and Coinbase;
  • the growth of the RWA market, which has reached about $52 billion.

The probability of the Clarity Act being passed by the end of 2026 is estimated at around 50% by the firm.

Historical Signal Activated

A similar conclusion based on another metric was presented by specialists from K33. They observed that currently, more than half of the Bitcoin supply is at a loss. Over the past month, this figure has risen from about 30% to over 50%. More than 10 million BTC last moved at prices above current levels.

Source: K33.

K33 estimates that historically, such values have only been observed in the later stages of bear phases and typically precede the formation of a bottom within a few weeks:

  • in the 2018 and 2022 cycles, the minimum was reached 23 and 13 days after the signal appeared;
  • in 2017, it was after 31 days.

An exception was the 2014 cycle: it took 101 days to reach the final bottom, during which time the price dropped another 46%.

Analysts also noted the return of Bitcoin to the 200-week moving average—a level that has accompanied all previous market lows. Simultaneously, the RSI has dropped to its lowest point since November 2018, and the fear and greed index has reached a level of 8 ("extreme fear").

However, K33 emphasized that the current cycle may differ from previous ones. One factor exerting pressure is the massive outflow of capital from exchange-traded crypto products: over four weeks, investors withdrew about 85,600 BTC—the largest figure on record.

Despite this, long-term holders continue to accumulate coins and now control about 79% of the supply—a record share that the firm views as a sign of sustained long-term demand.

K33 believes that the $60,000 area may already serve as a benchmark for long-term accumulation and could represent the bottom of the current cycle.

It is worth noting that in July, CryptoQuant analyst known as TheChessOnChain suggested that Bitcoin could fall below $58,000.