Prediction markets are rapidly evolving beyond traditional sports betting. By 2030, the total turnover of these platforms could reach $1 trillion, according to analysts at CNBC.

The main drivers of this growth include regulatory clarity, partnerships with major companies, and a structural advantage over traditional bookmakers in terms of available liquidity.

“Federal-level regulatory acceptance (as opposed to state-level regulation) expands the sector. Additionally, blockchain tokenization and integration with cryptocurrencies provide global liquidity, long-term events, and participation from institutional investors,” Bernstein noted.

In recent months, authorities in certain states have increased oversight of prediction platforms. However, CFTC representatives stated that their agency has "exclusive jurisdiction" in this area and announced the development of unified federal regulations.

Sports as an Entry Point

In 2025, trading volumes on prediction platforms tripled to $51 billion. Their popularity surged during the 2024 U.S. presidential elections, after which user focus shifted to cryptocurrencies, macroeconomics, and politics.

Since the beginning of 2026, the turnover of sector leaders—Polymarket and Kalshi—has already surpassed $60 billion. Bernstein expects this figure to rise to $240 billion by December and reach $1 trillion by 2030.

Currently, sports remain the dominant theme, accounting for 61% of total betting volume. Analysts attribute this to restrictions on online bookmakers and fragmented regulations across states.

However, experts believe interest in such events will cool in the coming years. They describe sports as merely a "gateway" rather than the ultimate goal for users of these platforms. The long-term prospects for the sector are linked to contracts on crypto assets, macroeconomic indicators, and politics.

“The institutional market will grow around economic, business, and political contracts—investors need more direct and private access to such phenomena. Corporations and insurance companies will also want to hedge risks associated with specific situations,” Bernstein explained.

Experts forecast that the annual recurring revenue (ARR) of prediction markets will grow from $400 million in 2025 to $2.5 billion in 2026, driven by an influx of new users and optimized monetization models.

Polymarket has already moved away from zero commissions, with its current ARR at $420 million, analysts noted. They estimate that by the end of 2030, the sector's total profit will increase to $10.8 billion.

Asymmetric Growth Potential

Bernstein analysts also highlighted that Robinhood and Coinbase have become key distribution channels for prediction markets.

Robinhood stands out in particular: within a year of launching its integrated platform based on Kalshi, it achieved an ARR of around $350 million.

The company's stock is expected to benefit from two factors: the anticipated expansion of the segment and "high confidence" in the recovery of the crypto industry.

Experts believe that the weak results of the first quarter are already factored into the current stock price of HOOD, which has fallen about 50% since the end of 2025. Investor sentiment is expected to improve as trading volumes recover in the coming months.

“We expect revenue from prediction markets to grow from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026. This will account for 17% of transaction revenues and 10% of total profits in the current year, which is rich in catalysts. The U.S. will host the World Cup this summer, and political activity will ramp up in the second half of the year ahead of the midterm elections,” Bernstein concluded.

It is worth noting that the taxation of winnings on prediction markets has left experts in a quandary.