Summary
- Despite Bitcoin's significant drop from its all-time peak, Bernstein analysts maintain a forecast of $150,000 for the cryptocurrency.
- They cite potential regulatory clarity and the continued purchasing strategy as possible positive factors.
- This week, Bitcoin rose over 6%, reaching its highest value in two weeks.
Since hitting an all-time high last October, Bitcoin has struggled to meet the optimistic projections set by both supporters and analysts, experiencing a nearly 50% decline in value.
On Monday, Bitcoin traded at $63,836 after peaking at $63,900 earlier in the day—marking its highest level in the past 14 days. Analysts from the investment bank Bernstein continue to uphold their “ambitious” prediction of reaching $150,000 per Bitcoin by the end of the year.
“Ultimately, corrections in the crypto market can be difficult, but this one has been relatively reassuring,” the analysts stated. “The crypto market seems to be maturing. We remain positive about Bitcoin in the long run,” they noted.
In the last 24 hours, Bitcoin has increased by 1.7%, bringing its weekly gain to over 6%. However, it has lost all its gains made since President Donald Trump's reelection eight months ago.
“Our target of $150K for Bitcoin by the end of 2026 may seem bold given the current market conditions,” the analysts commented. “Nonetheless, we anticipate that the Bitcoin cycle will eventually rebound, and we are monitoring BTC flows for indications of recovery.”
A potential recovery signal could emerge from the regulatory landscape, with the firm observing that there is a 50% chance that the Clarity Act could be passed by the year's end, according to Polymarket.
If this regulatory progress occurs, the firm expects it to lead to “increased market liquidity and greater institutional acceptance of both crypto-native assets and blockchain representations of traditional assets.”
Moreover, analysts do not foresee Michael Saylor's Bitcoin investment firm, Strategy, needing to sell off assets to meet dividend payments. Last week, the largest publicly traded Bitcoin holder sold $216 million in BTC to cover dividends, boosting its USD reserve to over $2.55 billion.
“Strategy maintains a USD reserve that covers about 17 months of dividend and interest obligations, with any reserve dropping below 12 months requiring board approval,” Bernstein explained. “Therefore, it seems improbable that any significant forced Bitcoin supply will emerge from Strategy, which continues to act as a net buyer in the market,” they added.
For Bitcoin to achieve the ambitious $150,000 target by year-end, it would need to surge nearly 135% from its current trading level.