The current downturn is described as the "weakest bear scenario" in the history of the leading cryptocurrency. Analysts at Bernstein believe that the price drop reflects a crisis of confidence among market participants rather than fundamental issues with the asset, as reported by The Block.

The experts reaffirmed their long-term bullish outlook for Bitcoin, maintaining a price target of $150,000 by the end of 2026.

Bernstein noted the absence of typical catalysts for a crypto winter, such as systemic failures, bankruptcies of major players, or issues with hidden leverage.

In contrast, the market is supported by capital inflows into ETFs, corporate treasuries, and a favorable stance from U.S. politicians.

The specialists addressed the main arguments from skeptics:

  • lagging behind gold — Bitcoin is still trading as an asset sensitive to liquidity rather than as a mature "safe haven." High interest rates are holding back growth, but the ETF infrastructure is ready to accept capital when conditions ease;
  • ignoring AI trends — blockchain is better suited for an economy of autonomous AI agents than closed banking APIs;
  • quantum threat — a risk for all digital finance, not just cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin can adapt through code updates;
  • resilience of miners and holders — large companies like Strategy can withstand even a prolonged downturn (down to $8,000 over five years). Miners are diversifying their income by providing power for AI data centers.

Glassnode also assessed the market situation.

At $70k, the unrealized loss in the market equals ~16% of the market cap. Current market pain echoes a similar structure seen in early May 2022.

📉 https://t.co/0aCIeukc4X https://t.co/FDQJFI3F0M pic.twitter.com/c4FmotH9Cs

— glassnode (@glassnode) February 9, 2026

According to analysts, unrealized losses amount to ~16% of market capitalization. They noted that the current market structure and level of "pain" for investors resemble early May 2022.

These findings were supported by MN Trading founder Michaël van de Poppe, who pointed to the historical oversold condition of the market: the fear and greed index dropped to 5 points, while the RSI fell to 15. Such low values were only seen in 2018 and during the COVID crash.

Two important facts this morning:

— The Fear & Greed Index has hit 5. The lowest ever recorded.
— The RSI has hit 15. These two levels were only seen in 2018 & during the COVID crash.

That's why I don't think we'll see <$60K for #Bitcoin quickly.

It looks like we're going to… pic.twitter.com/OdUjCckvzo

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) February 9, 2026

The trader believes a rapid drop below $60,000 is unlikely. He anticipates consolidation and a gradual return to growth.

It’s worth noting that the Sharpe ratio indicated the final stage of the bear market. The indicator for the leading cryptocurrency has fallen to -10, the lowest since March 2023.