Benchmark analysts have described the quantum threat to Bitcoin as "long-term" and "manageable." In a new report, experts urged against succumbing to panic, according to The Block.
Researcher Mark Palmer acknowledged the theoretical vulnerability of Bitcoin's cryptography but emphasized that real attacks are "decades away, not years." Developers have ample time to adapt the protocol.
A powerful quantum computer could theoretically compute a private key from public data. However, Palmer clarified that the threat only pertains to coins on addresses with already exposed public keys.
Risk Assessment
According to Benchmark's calculations, between 1 to 2 million BTC are vulnerable. This includes funds on reused addresses or wallets from the era of Satoshi.
Alternative estimates differ: K33 researcher Vetle Lunde pointed to 6.8 million BTC at risk. However, he noted the uncertainty of timelines and called for developer coordination rather than panic selling.
Experts' predictions regarding the timeline for a real threat vary:
- Venture investor Chamath Palihapitiya stated in November that risks will become relevant in the next 2-5 years;
- Cryptographer Adam Back disagreed with the pessimistic scenario, pushing the timeline to 20-40 years.
Benchmark also rejected the notion that Bitcoin's architecture is inflexible. Analysts reminded that successful soft forks like Taproot have occurred and predicted a smooth transition of the network to quantum resistance.
Industry Preparation
Major players have already begun preparing for the post-quantum era:
- The Ethereum Foundation formed a security team and allocated a $1 million research grant;
- Coinbase established an advisory board to assess risks and develop protection strategies.
Investors are also exercising caution: previously, Jefferies strategist Christopher Wood excluded Bitcoin from his model portfolio, citing quantum technologies as an existential threat to the network.
Notably, leading analyst _Checkonchain James Check stated that the primary reason for the weakness of the first cryptocurrency is massive selling by long-term holders, not concerns regarding the long-term prospects of the asset.