The main competitive advantage of the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid in the prediction market segment will be the HYPE token. This was stated by BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes in an interview with CoinDesk.
According to him, users will not only trade bets on event outcomes but also directly participate in the platform's economy through the native coin. This structurally differentiates Hyperliquid from Kalshi and Polymarket.
“HYPE-4 will take the lead thanks to the platform's user base, low fees, and robust technical foundation. Holders of the native token will directly benefit from its activity,” the expert explained.
On Kalshi, traders do not gain a share in the platform's economy; they simply buy and sell contracts. The platform is regulated by the CFTC and lacks a tokenized incentive structure.
Polymarket is preparing to launch its own token. In the pre-market, perpetual contracts for POLY are trading around $14, corresponding to an FDV of approximately $14 billion. In comparison, the HYPE metric currently exceeds $38 billion.
Source: CoinGecko.Hayes emphasized that Hyperliquid is entering the market with a ready mechanism for redistributing value within its ecosystem.
Geography
Hayes also pointed to regulatory asymmetry as an additional factor.
Kalshi operates in the U.S. under CFTC oversight, where compliance is prioritized over tokenomics. Polymarket, after registering in the U.S., is tightening its legal framework and facing restrictions in Asia: the service is blocked or partially restricted in Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan, and Japan.
Hyperliquid does not face such barriers. Its audience is initially skewed towards Asian traders, where retail and semi-institutional bets on events have long constituted a significant portion of the market.
Active Testing
In March, the leading perp-DEX launched the HIP-4 protocol with prediction markets in the testnet. Trading bets on events will become an additional layer within the existing Hyperliquid ecosystem.
Users will be able to open positions on event outcomes just as they currently trade perpetual contracts. For now, during testing, clients have access to binary options on the underlying prices of HyperCore.
The new feature will be based on so-called outcome tokens. In April, the platform introduced a fee structure for these assets: opening a position will be free, with fees only charged upon closing or settling a trade.
It is worth noting that a group of researchers from the London Business School and Yale University analyzed transactions on Polymarket from 2023 to 2025. The authors concluded that the platform's predictive accuracy is driven by an "informed minority" rather than the "wisdom of the crowd."