Analysts have identified key levels for the cryptocurrency ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting.

BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes suggested that Bitcoin could break out of its sideways movement if the Fed supports the Japanese bond market.

According to his theory, the Federal Reserve may intervene in the crisis in Japan, where the yen is weakening and the yields on Japanese government bonds (JGB) are rising.

This situation threatens U.S. interests, as investors might start selling Treasuries to buy higher-yielding JGBs.

"Will the collapse of the yen and JGB markets prompt any monetary easing from the Bank of Japan or the Fed? The answer is yes. Discussing the Japanese financial system is crucial because Bitcoin needs a healthy dose of monetary easing to break out of its sideways movement," Hayes believes.

He argues that the U.S. central bank could create dollar reserves through banks like JPMorgan, sell dollars for yen to support the currency, and buy JGBs to lower their yields. This would expand the Fed's balance sheet and serve as a "necessary injection for the dirty fiat system."

Federal Reserve Meeting

On January 28, the FOMC will decide on the key interest rate. The vast majority of investors believe the rate will remain unchanged, in the range of 3.5-3.75%.

Source: CME FedWatch.

A similar picture is observed in prediction markets. Users on Polymarket assess the likelihood of a rate cut or hike at less than 1%.

Source: Polymarket.

Traders believe the market has already priced in potential negative impacts from maintaining the rate. Analysts at QCP anticipate short-term volatility only in the case of a "hawkish pause."

Currently, all eyes are on the statements from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

"All eyes are on Powell's press conference and his comments about the Fed's plans for the coming months. If we hear any hints of a rate cut in March, Bitcoin will soar to the moon," says crypto investor Kiran Gadakh.

Key Bitcoin Levels

Ahead of the meeting, Bitcoin's price has returned to $90,000, with the asset rising 2.3% in the last 24 hours.

Hourly chart of BTC/USDT on Binance. Source: TradingView.

Some attribute the recovery of the first cryptocurrency to the weakening dollar, which recently dropped to an index of 95.5 — its lowest level in four years.

"This reduced the opportunity cost of holding risky assets and supported Bitcoin's rise. The pressure eased after the coin entered the $86,000-87,000 zone and held there, triggering a dense cluster of leveraged position liquidations, which reduced excessive leverage and stabilized the short-term market structure," noted analysts from the CoinSwitch exchange.

They characterized the movement of digital gold as a "calm and consolidation," rather than a readiness for a breakout.

Analyst Daan Crypto Trades identified $84,000 as a key support level in case of a correction due to the Fed's decisions or macroeconomic statistics. This level corresponds to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement from the 2022 low ($15,500) to local highs.

$BTC Technically the .382 Fibonacci retracement retest has still held up to this point.

This is a pattern that has repeated throughout the entire cycle so far. Where each major drawdown has held on to that .382 Fib Retracement measured from the bear market bottom to the local… pic.twitter.com/xokyJzRNSl

— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) January 27, 2026

"From a technical standpoint, this level is a significant reference point, but a confident price reaction is needed soon to maintain a healthy market structure," the expert noted.

Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of Alphractal, believes that "Bitcoin must not lose $81,000 under any circumstances."

He argues that breaking this level could trigger a "capitulation process similar to 2022," with the next significant support around $65,500.

Bitcoin cannot lose $81K under any circumstances, according to on-chain analysis.

If this level breaks, a capitulation process similar to 2022 may unfold.

The next major support would sit around $65,500.

Hard to believe for many — but this same disbelief about how far price… pic.twitter.com/IcGLelt2pP

— Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson) January 27, 2026

The key resistance zone is the range of $90,000-94,000, where the 50- and 100-day moving averages are located. Breaking through this cluster is necessary to resume the upward trend.

Forecasts

Sean Yang, chief analyst at MEXC's research department, expects a market recovery soon. Historically, Bitcoin and Ethereum have averaged gains of 14% and 27% respectively in February.

"If history repeats itself, both assets could show moderate recovery in the coming month, as extended technical indicators signal oversold conditions," he noted in a comment to ForkLog.

However, the expert emphasized that the market has not been following traditional trends lately — clear signs of changes in the classic four-year cycle are emerging.

Yang linked growth prospects to the influx of institutional capital, but pointed out its current instability.

Dynamics of outflows and inflows in spot Bitcoin ETFs. Source: SoSoValue.

Max Khnatysyn, head of operations at Toobit for the CIS, expressed a similar view. He identified progress in regulation and global acceptance of Bitcoin as additional growth drivers.

"For Ethereum, the key growth factor remains the active use of the main network and layer-two solutions," he emphasized.

Recall that Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, identified the $86,600 mark as a crucial threshold for ETF holders.