If there is a significant correction in the stock market, the price of Bitcoin could fall to $35,000. This prediction comes from an expert known as On-Chain Mind.
— On-Chain Mind (@OnChainMind) February 24, 2026
He noted that since 2019, Bitcoin has not been trading as "digital gold" but rather as "leveraged tech stocks." The price movement of the asset closely correlates with the Nasdaq 100 index. Additionally, the crypto market acts as a "volatility amplifier for traditional finance."
Historically, during bear markets, Bitcoin's declines have been 2-4 times deeper than those of the Nasdaq. However, this gap is gradually narrowing due to the influx of institutional investors.
On-Chain Mind calculated the worst macroeconomic scenario at present. If the Nasdaq undergoes a "typical correction" and loses 23%, Bitcoin could drop by approximately 46%.
"At the current price of around $66,000, such a move would bring the price down to $35,000. I estimate the probability of this scenario at 20%," the analyst wrote.
Cyclicality Remains
The specialist also reminded us about market cycles. It has been about 140 days since the all-time high (ATH). According to him, this duration is historically insufficient for a definitive bottom to form—transitioning to a new growth phase typically takes around 400 days.
Despite potential risks, holding the asset long-term nearly eliminates the chance of losses. Statistics show that if Bitcoin is held for a day or a month, the chance of losing money is 45%. However, if an investor holds the assets for more than three years, the risk of going into the red drops below 1%.
The analyst emphasized that the main advantage in the crypto market is gained by patient investors, not those trying to time the perfect trade.
Recall that on February 24, analysts at Coinbase Institutional identified key price levels for digital gold.