Summary
- A recent study by the Coalition for Prediction Markets indicates that Americans participated in offshore prediction markets with wagers totaling up to $34 billion over a year.
- The report estimates that around 30% of Polymarket's trading volume during this timeframe was contributed by U.S. users.
- By 2030, the volume of U.S. trading on these offshore platforms could potentially reach $133 billion, according to the study's projections.
According to a study commissioned by the Coalition for Prediction Markets, Americans accounted for as much as $34 billion in trading activity on offshore prediction markets within the 12-month period concluding in April 2026. This coalition includes regulated market operators such as Kalshi, Crypto.com, and Coinbase.
The research, conducted by Harry Crane, a professor at Rutgers and a member of the CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee, compared activity on offshore platforms—those not allowing U.S. users and unregulated by the CFTC—with platforms serving only U.S. or only non-U.S. users.
The study estimates that between 12.5% and 31.5% of total U.S. prediction market activity, encompassing both regulated and unregulated platforms, occurs on these offshore sites.
Furthermore, based on current growth forecasts in the industry, U.S. involvement in offshore prediction markets could reach an estimated annual volume of $133 billion by 2030, assuming the market shares between regulated and offshore platforms remain constant.
@HarryDCrane examined the largest offshore prediction market platforms that are not allowed to serve U.S. users.
He discovered that between $11 billion and $34 billion in offshore prediction market activities is attributed to U.S. participants.
This estimate is considered conservative.
These platforms are not…
— Coalition for Prediction Markets (@PredictAction) June 11, 2026
The analysis highlighted Polymarket, the largest offshore platform, which estimates that U.S. users contributed approximately $10.6 billion to $26.7 billion of its total trading volume of $55.6 billion in the past year, despite being technically barred from the platform.
This platform was pushed offshore by the CFTC in 2022, but it received a green light to operate in the U.S. last fall. Since then, it has gradually launched its regulated Polymarket U.S. platform, although the study did not separate volume data due to reliability issues.
Data from a Dune dashboard indicates that the regulated U.S. version of Polymarket has recorded around $5 billion in notional volumes to date.
A spokesperson for Polymarket did not respond promptly to a request for comment from Decrypt.
While Polymarket was the largest offshore market analyzed, the study also included data from other unregulated platforms such as Opinion, Predict, Limitless, and Myriad. (Note: Myriad is a product of Decrypt’s parent company, Dastan).
The Coalition, comprised of regulated prediction market operators, views this trend as a significant issue, as offshore markets lack the regulatory standards that govern U.S. platforms.
“Americans are utilizing VPNs to access unregulated offshore prediction market platforms that offer contracts on sensitive topics,” the Coalition posted on X. “Now, we have a clearer picture of the size of this market.”
“These platforms do not adhere to the same customer verification protocols, anti-money laundering measures, or market integrity oversight that protect American traders,” it added.
Although the CFTC introduced new regulations on Wednesday that would ban betting on war or assassination outcomes, it has faced challenges and scrutiny in recent months as states and lawmakers push back against its regulatory authority and the expanding scope of prediction markets.
New CFTC Chairman Mike Selig has firmly maintained the agency's jurisdiction over these platforms, stating “see you in court” back in February as states began to contest the regulator's authority.
Earlier this week, Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren requested clarification regarding the CFTC's oversight, expressing concerns about whether it could effectively regulate prediction markets amid significant workforce reductions.