The Bitcoin futures market indicates a potential further decline in the price of the leading cryptocurrency. This conclusion was reached by Greg Magadini, the derivatives director at Amberdata.

According to the expert, the weak response in the futures basis suggests that true capitulation among investors has not yet occurred.

Magadini explained his forecast by analyzing the price difference (basis) between futures and the spot market:

  • Historically, the bottom of a bear cycle is accompanied by a significant discount of futures to spot prices;
  • During the last price drop, the basis of 90-day contracts changed little;
  • The current figure stands at around 4%, which corresponds to the risk-free yield of U.S. Treasury bonds.

The analyst compared the current situation to the end of 2022, when Bitcoin found a bottom below $20,000, and futures traded at a 9% discount. Magadini believes the current market structure leaves room for another wave of decline before final capitulation.

Return of American Buyers

The recovery of the leading cryptocurrency's price after a drop to $60,000 coincided with a turnaround in a key demand indicator in the U.S.

The Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks the spread between Bitcoin's price on the American exchange Coinbase and its average global price, sharply rebounded. At the peak of the sell-off, the index fell to -0.22%, but on February 10, it rose to -0.05%.

Source: CoinGlass.

Although the metric remains in negative territory, the trend indicates a return of American investors. Market participants took advantage of a dip-buying strategy after selling pressure eased.

Analysts view the Coinbase Premium as a proxy for assessing flows of institutional and dollar capital. A deep discount typically signals aggressive selling by U.S. players or their exit from the market.

The index's recovery to neutral levels suggests that buyers have once again recognized the asset's value following price stabilization.

What’s Happening with Bitcoin?

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $69,063 (+0.2% over the past day). The drop from the October peak exceeds 45%.

15-minute BTC/USDT chart from Binance. Source: TradingView.

Tim Sun, a senior researcher at HashKey Group, noted in a comment to Decrypt that the pace of the price decline is slowing. However, there is currently no clear signal for a trend reversal. The market continues to be pressured by low liquidity and regulatory uncertainty.

Sun clarified that accumulation of coins by large players only mitigates the decline but does not guarantee an immediate rebound.

Jeff May, the COO of BTSE, expressed a more optimistic view. He believes the sell-off has already begun to reverse, and further recovery depends on the actions of institutional investors and easing financial tensions globally.

Recall that Bernstein referred to the current Bitcoin correction as "the weakest in history," while the Sharpe ratio indicated the final stage of the bear market.