AI Credit Bubble Could Propel Bitcoin to $1 Million, Says Arthur Hayes

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, suggests that the current AI boom is misinterpreted, resembling the credit situation of the 2008 financial crisis more than the dot-com era downturn.

In his latest essay, Hayes highlights that hyperscale companies, which operate large data centers, are securing loans against their swiftly depreciating chip inventories. He argues that lenders mistakenly view these as tech investments, when they are more akin to real estate financing.

Hayes anticipates that a significant turning point will occur between late 2027 and 2028, when capital expenditures are expected to plateau. He draws parallels to the pre-2007 mortgage boom, predicting that credit will persist until weaker AI-related debts start to show signs of distress.

He foresees intervention from both the U.S. and Chinese governments to cushion the impact, potentially injecting more liquidity than was seen during the 2008 crisis. This, he argues, could provide a boost to Bitcoin, driving its price toward $1 million.

In the immediate term, Hayes views the recent downturn in AI stocks, including those in South Korea, as a normal correction within a larger upward trend.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $64,200, maintaining stability over the past week and remaining within the same range it has occupied since May.