In the first half of 2026, China's AgiBot has emerged as the leading player in the global humanoid robot market, according to a report by Smart Analytics Global (SAG). AgiBot shipped approximately 8,400 robots, capturing a 44% market share, while Unitree fell to second place with around 5,900 units, accounting for 31%.

Overall, about 19,100 humanoid robots were delivered from January to June, marking more than a threefold increase compared to the previous year. Chinese manufacturers dominate the market, responsible for 97% of global shipments.

Shift from Demonstrations to Industry

A key finding of the report highlights a significant shift in demand structure. While a year ago, humanoids were mainly used for research and experimental projects, the majority of shipments now cater to industrial and commercial applications.

The share of these applications has risen from about 50% in the first half of 2025 to over 70% in 2026. Robots are increasingly being utilized on production lines, in warehouses, and other environments requiring repetitive physical tasks.

However, the current market growth is supported not just by fully autonomous robots. Manufacturers are actively supplying platforms for pilot projects and application software development, meaning that high shipment rates do not necessarily correlate with significant revenue growth or widespread adoption.

The Chinese Market as a Battleground

While AgiBot and Unitree account for most of the global shipments, their competition is evolving along different lines. Unitree gained recognition for its relatively affordable robots, which are popular among researchers and developers, whereas AgiBot focuses on a broader range of industrial and commercial scenarios.

This strategy allowed AgiBot to ship approximately 2,500 more units than Unitree in the first half of the year, creating a substantial gap that has shifted the dynamics of the global market.

Another indicator of the industry's maturity is the expansion of supply geography. Chinese manufacturers are no longer confined to the domestic market and are increasing exports while competing for contracts with American, European, and other robotics developers.

SAG Predicts 500,000 Robots by 2030

The report's authors anticipate that global humanoid robot shipments will approach 60,000 units by the end of 2026, generating around $1.6 billion in industry revenue. In 2027, SAG forecasts the market will grow to nearly $3 billion, with shipments potentially reaching 500,000 robots by 2030.

However, analysts caution that future growth will depend less on manufacturers' ability to ramp up production and more on the maturity of the technologies themselves. SAG identifies several major obstacles, including:

  • insufficient real-world data for training;
  • capabilities of AI models;
  • robot reliability;
  • precision of manipulations;
  • safety and cost.

The segment focused on multimodal VLA and world models is rapidly evolving but remains in early stages. The industry's main transition lies in moving from robots that showcase their capabilities to systems that reliably function in real-world environments.

Geopolitical factors and regulations present additional risks. Recent U.S. restrictions on importing foreign-made robots could complicate Chinese companies' efforts to enter developed international markets, affecting supply chains, partnerships, and investments. Furthermore, SAG points out the uncertainty surrounding regulations for highly realistic humanoids and human-AI interaction.

Meanwhile, the mass market for domestic robots appears to be a distant prospect, with SAG not expecting universal humanoids for home tasks to achieve significant scale in the next five years due to the complexities and unpredictability of household environments.

As a reminder, Morgan Stanley predicts that shipments of Chinese humanoid robots will reach 50,000 units in 2026.