The lack of movement in early bitcoins may not necessarily be due to Satoshi Nakamoto's deliberate inaction. The creator of the first cryptocurrency might have simply lost the private keys, according to cryptographer Adam Back.

“That could have happened. After all, he is human,” he said during a presentation at Blockchain Paris Week.

Adam Back speaking at Blockchain Paris Week. Source: ForkLog.

The expert noted that in the early years of Bitcoin, wallet backups were not as reliable and user-friendly as they are today, following the widespread adoption of HD wallets and seed phrases.

Users had to manually save the wallet.dat file containing their private keys. With active transactions, this backup needed to be regularly updated.

According to Back, not everyone was aware of this requirement, which may have led some early users to lose access to part of their funds. Future migration of coins to quantum-resistant address types may reveal how many of the first miners actually retained control over their keys.

How Much BTC Does Satoshi Own?

The expert also emphasized that the market still does not know for certain how many coins belong to the creator of Bitcoin. Common estimates are based on mining pattern analysis, but such conclusions remain speculative.

He reminded that in the first year of the network, participants mined about 2.5 million BTC. Satoshi's estimated share is typically assessed at between 500,000 and 1 million BTC.

According to Arkham, Nakamoto's assets are estimated at 1.096 million BTC, valued at $82.8 billion at current rates. However, Back believes these assets could belong to another early player.

Source: Arkham.

“In reality, we don’t know if these are Satoshi's coins. We assumed they belong to him, but they could also belong to another early miner. We just don’t know,” he stated.

The cryptographer estimates that Satoshi may own around 500,000 coins.

“Did he spend them? It’s often said that he didn’t. But of the coins from 2009, no more than 40% have been spent. As for later periods, the uncertainty is higher. He may have spent some of the later coins. We don’t know for sure. Those would be the most private,” the expert noted.

Wave of Institutional Adoption

Back also predicted a wave of institutional adoption of Bitcoin in the coming years. He stated that there has not yet been a significant influx of funds from major players.

“People have heard about institutional adoption and expected purchases to start immediately. But institutions are more systematic and focused on processes that take time,” the expert pointed out.

A large bank may announce the inclusion of the first cryptocurrency in model portfolios, but then a lengthy process of legal, compliance, and custodian selection will follow.

However, this process has already begun, Back emphasized. According to BlackRock's flow data, institutions hold about 30% of coins through ETFs. The remaining 70% are held by individuals managing their savings through brokers or advisors.

The main wave is still ahead, according to the cryptographer. A vast number of people do not make independent investment decisions. Their savings are distributed across pension funds and insurance policies managed by professional managers.

“Probably, that’s where a large portion of the world’s money is,” Back said.

These managers are just beginning to go through the necessary procedures. Once they complete the approvals, access to Bitcoin will open up for millions of people who have never entered crypto exchanges.

“I think that’s still ahead. The late wave will kick off in the next few years,” the expert concluded.

Recall that in April, a NYT journalist conducted an extensive investigation and concluded that Adam Back is the creator of Bitcoin. The cryptographer denied this.