The first cryptocurrency is trading around $87,000, nearly matching the average entry price for spot ETFs ($86,600). Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, referred to this area as a "psychological threshold."

+$6B Out, Zero Profit: The Psychological Line for Bitcoin ETF Investors

“This zone acts as a psychological pivot: holding above realized price reinforces conviction & stabilizes flows, while sustained trading below it tends to accelerate redemptions.” – By @MorenoDV_ pic.twitter.com/OZ8A60qPhq

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) January 28, 2026

According to the expert, investors are currently faced with a choice: ride out the downturn or exit at break-even. Profit-taking is not on the table.

The key indicator is the realized price. If the price remains above this level, investor confidence will be maintained. A drop below this mark would eliminate the "profit buffer" for holders and trigger accelerated redemptions.

Moreno provided the following data:

  • The peak cumulative inflow was recorded on October 10, 2025 ($72.6 billion);
  • Since then, the net outflow has been approximately $6.1 billion;
  • The current figure stands at $66.5 billion (an 8.4% decrease).

The analyst views the current situation as the first significant stress test for the sector. Despite the capital outflow, the realized price has not declined. The market has absorbed the selling pressure from speculators and late investors.

This situation has tested resilience. Continued price retention above the average entry cost will encourage holders to maintain their positions. Falling below this level could lead to a strategy shift from passive accumulation to active selling.

As a reminder, in January, Bitwise analysts stated that the fourth quarter of 2025 marked the end of the bear phase.