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Analyst Identifies $86,600 as Crucial Level for ETF Holders

Bitcoin's current price of $87,000 is critical for ETF investors, with $86,600 seen as a psychological threshold for confidence and potential redemptions.

Marcus Reid
January 28, 2026 1 min read
Analyst Identifies $86,600 as Crucial Level for ETF Holders

Bitcoin is currently trading at approximately $87,000, closely aligning with the average entry price for spot ETFs, which stands at $86,600. Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, highlights this price point as a significant "psychological threshold" for investors.

“This zone acts as a psychological pivot: holding above realized price reinforces conviction & stabilizes flows, while sustained trading below it tends to accelerate redemptions.” – Julio Moreno

Moreno suggests that investors are now at a crossroads: they can either endure the downturn or exit at break-even, as profit-taking remains unlikely. The realized price is crucial; maintaining a price above this level will help sustain investor confidence, while dipping below it could lead to increased redemptions as it would remove the "profit buffer" for holders.

Recent data from Moreno indicates that the peak cumulative inflow occurred on October 10, 2025, totaling $72.6 billion, but since then, the sector has experienced a net outflow of about $6.1 billion, bringing the current total to $66.5 billion, reflecting an 8.4% decrease.

This scenario is viewed as a significant stress test for the cryptocurrency market. Despite the outflows, the realized price has remained stable, indicating that the market has effectively managed the selling pressure from speculative investors.

Maintaining prices above the average entry cost is essential for encouraging holders to stay invested. If prices fall below this threshold, it may prompt a shift from passive holding to active selling strategies. Notably, analysts from Bitwise previously indicated that Q4 2025 marked the end of the bear market phase.